Current situation in the Ukraine-Russia war

Russia's occupation of Ukraine completed its 7th day and the balances have changed completely compared to the first day. While he was thought to be alone on the first day, at the end of the 7th day there is a Ukraine with increased self-confidence and Zelensky. So where will the process go?

3 things have changed in 7 days. First, the war is no longer between Putin and Zelensky, as Russia had put forward at first, but is turning into an inter-people process. If the war in Russia prolongs, reactions to Putin will increase, while in Ukraine the public will support Zelensky more.

Countries that have closed their airspace to Russia (wikipedia)

The second factor that has changed in war is that war has now become a systemic problem. From closing the airspace of European countries to Russian planes to economic embargoes, they all gave Europe the feeling that we can do something together.

Russia, on the other hand, gave a kind of systemic response to the West by raising the nuclear deterrence forces to the highest alert level. The faster the problem is systematized, the harder the solution rate will be, but a second Syrian or Libyan stalemate may occur in Ukraine.

The third element that has changed in the war is that Putin's efforts to find a way out are increasing as all of Putin's moves and plans fail. Nothing came out of the talks held on Monday at the Belarusian border, but Putin is trying to give the impression that I want a way to escape from current situation.

Likewise, Zelensky does not want to be the side that wants or prolongs the war by sending a delegation to the talks. But Zelensky knows that if a country is occupying your land, what will you negotiate with it? You probably say something like this; Get out of my land!

So where will war evolve?

In this war, Putin's only rival is himself. He will lose all his ways out because with this move, Putin committed suicide geopolitically. If it invades in a short time, the countries in the Soviet geography will be afraid; If the war lasts for a long time, it will produce costs in domestic politics.

The current trend is in favor of Ukraine. Even if the prolongation of the war is costly,** there is a high probability that there will be a new Afghanistan case for Putin**. If Western countries really want to weaken Putin and Russia (if Russia doesn't back down), they should strive to turn it into a cost for Putin.

While Russia is already at a loss, the West should not go too far on Russia and create a perception of victimization. Instead of creating the perception that we want to punish Russia altogether, Western countries should provide subtle and tactical support, see the process, and give Zelensky sufficient support.

Putin, dissatisfied with the course of the war.

The West's main strategy should focus on removing Putin from power, rather than punishing the Russian people and creating an Iraq and Venezuela. In this sense, working closely with different groups, including oligarchs, and even implicit support is decisive.

Long story short, as long as Russia does not withdraw, this war will continue. There is still no way out for Russia to withdraw in a short time. The point reached is one of the weakest moments of Putin's rule. But still, a solution should be sought without cornering him, even by showing him a way out.