So ever since Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, started his “special military operation”, or as it is known to the rest of the world, the war in Ukraine, he has been struggling to serve his daily dish of propaganda and brutal beatings of peaceful protesters. This has led to him shutting down, almost every major social media platform and signing into law, new legislation, that will make it impossible to even mention the basic facts about the war in Ukraine. Just saying the word war, instead of a special military operation, could land you in jail for up to 15 years and any mentions of bombings or civilians being killed by Russia can also land you in jail for a very long time. Now Russia has never been known as a wonderful place, for an intense but fair debate on public issues, however, these new laws and their ruthless enforcement of them take the shut up and do as you are told attitude, to a whole new level. It has made the current life in Russia, pretty much unbearable for modern Russians, that want to live in a country, where they are not beaten and locked up for just voicing their opinions and simply want to build a more prosperous Russia.

When you combine these new laws, with the fact that almost all Russians that were working for foreign companies, can’t even get paid right now, you start to see why so many Russians are fleeing their home country. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled to various countries in Asia and the Middle East, that have a visa-free entry for them, however, a significant number of them have also fled to Finland & Georgia and for Georgia especially, this comes with some serious consequences. Because what has happened in Ukraine is a replica of what happened in Georgia in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, under the premise that it needed to “protect the people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia”. This is the pretext for the Russians to invade Ukraine, claiming to have liberated Donetsk and Luhansk from the so-called Nazi invaders.

So at this point, it’s very clear, that Vladimir Putin is not only dreaming of reuniting, the soviet union, but he’s already doing so and he’s using the same tactic every single time. First, he starts by stirring up unrest in former soviet countries, that house a large Russian population and then proceeds with arming and financing the newly formed militia groups. These militia groups will then lay claim to territory in those countries, claiming that it’s an independent state, after which Russia comes in, pretending to be this glorious savior, that is liberating Russians from the nazi rule. It’s just high-stakes geopolitical theatre, however, this terrible performance does not get an abysmal review in the New York Times, it gets bombed like crazy and tanks rolling down people's front yards.

What has happened to Georgia in 2008 and the years that followed, was horrible, because not only did the country lose well over 25% of its territory, but for no reason hundreds of people were kidnapped, tortured and fined. This was the original administrative boundary as Georgia calls it since they do not recognize Russia’s claim over the land and here you can see how the border is being shoved forward, on an almost weekly basis. This border goes straight through people’s yards, thereby separating families, as well as separating farmers from their land. So when their cattle graze too close to the border, the farmers get kidnapped and their families must pay a considerable ransom to have them returned.

Current situation in Georgia, liveuamap

This shows that Russia has no problems, with taking over Georgia and the only reason why they invaded Ukraine and not Georgia, is simply because Ukraine is of greater strategic importance. It’s safe to say, that Russia pretty much already considers Georgia part of Russia, since they are claiming more and more of the country, every week, without any significant resistance. Now you might ask why is Georgia letting this happen and why is the country not fighting back. Well, that’s easier said than done. Because if you weigh 100lbs and a 200lbs guy starts pushing and slapping you around, you kind of hope that’s all he does and you might try to just walk away. If you start pushing back, you’re probably going to catch a real fist and he’s going to break your jaw.

Because when Russia invaded in 2008 the battle only lasted 5 days, after which Russia took control over the two regions at set up a full military infrastructure on Georgian soil. Georgia simply wasn’t able to repel a full-fledged Russian assault and it still isn’t ready to do so today, this brings us to the massive problem of thousands of Russians fleeing to Georgia. Because the whole premise of going into Ukraine was to liberate the Russians living there, as more and more Russians flock to Georgia it’s very easy for Putin to do the same thing over there, knowing that he will face far less opposition from the Georgian military, it’s a quick victory, which he can then use, as a major propaganda piece. This puts Georgia at greater risk than it already has, and may encourage Russia to take the whole country, not just 30% or 40%, that they are going after right now.

georgians protesting russian invasion of ukraine, dailysabah

In addition to this, there was an extra reason for going into Ukraine, one that president Putin likes to slap on to his rage sessions, which is that it was all done to stop Nato from expanding. This puts Georgia at risk, since not only is Georgia trying to become part of the EU, to enhance its economic prosperity, but Georgia is also bordering Turkey, which is already a Nato member. So if we use Putin’s logic, Georgia is flirting with the EU membership, this would clear the way for NATO membership, so let’s escalate the fighting in the independent regions and then go in as the savior of Georgia and the people will love me. The Russian army believed they were going to be welcomed as saviors, when they went into Ukraine, due to all the domestic propaganda. This did not go as planned.

So clearly more Russians into Georgia is not only a very dangerous situation going forward, but it’s also a very painful reminder of the Russian encroachment over the past 14 years and when you put all of this together, you start to see why the sentiment in Georgia is now becoming more and more unfriendly towards Russians. Because not only are the fleeing Russians having an impact on the Georgian economy, causing the housing market to explode and rents to double or even triple. They are also acting as a sort of homing beacon for Putin to send his military towards. If Ukraine would have been a cakewalk, it would have been almost certain that Georgia would follow very quickly, however, the sheer damage that the Ukrainian military has done to the Russians is making it currently very difficult to send troops to other regions.

The Russian military is currently relying on militias from Africa and Eastern Europe to fight against Ukraine since they are suffering such heavy losses. So for the time being Georgia, it looks like President Putin has his hands full with Ukraine, and starting another conflict seems to be out of the question, however, Putin has shown, very clearly in the last months, that reasoning is not one of his strengths. Like most Georgians, modern-day Russians just want to see their country prosper and provide new opportunities for young people to travel and work on exciting projects. Sadly with this man in power, that future seems lightyears away.